Idea diffusion and influence

I was prompted to think more about Duncan Watts’s ideas by Sarah Fraser’s comment on my post on influencer communities, and by her post on professor Watt’s theories.

In fact, I’ve just finished reading Watts’s Six Degrees, which was excellent and more accessible (I found) than Barabasi’s Linked. So Professor Watts is top of mind right now.

Here’s where I think the key difference between what Watts says and my practical experience. Watts talks about the role of influencers in the diffusion of ideas. As Seth says, use ‘sneezers’ with influence if you want to crack a market. Watts disagrees that you can predict what ideas diffuse, or even whether you can identify influencers that might make diffusion easier or more likely. It’s pretty much random, according to Watts.

I agree. If you’re trying to use influencers to spread ideas and concepts, then good luck but don’t bet the firm.

My own view is that influencers can be identified, and can assist greatly, in the decision-making process. That is, not whether an idea is spread or not, but whether an idea is adopted in the end. Idea diffusion is part of the process, but it’s just the start. A decision-making process is often a long and time-consuming activity. In the B2B world especially, a decision may take years to emerge. Idea diffusion is necessary, but not sufficient.

I explored this relationship between influence and the decision-making process in the book, and also posted on it (in summary form) here. Idea planting (as I called it) is right at the start of the process, but is relatively low down in the awareness of senior decision makers. Thus idea diffusers (connectors, sneezers, etc) may not be that influential in affecting the ultimate decision. There are a whole bunch of other influencers that intervene after ideas are sown.

Idea diffusion is also important in the process of deciding whether to do something. Do I adopt SOA? Do I need a Web2.0 strategy? Do I need a new car? But it plays less of a role in the subsequent decision of what to buy. Different influencers are in play at this more practical stage, like product reviewers or case studies or implementers.

The only problem I have with Professor Watts’s arguments is that when he doubts the role of influencers in any aspect of life, it doesn’t fit with real world experience and intuition. My guess is that we can all think of people who are influential in certain areas of life. Fitting this experience and intuition into a practical marketing approach is what Influencer Marketing is all about.

What constitutes quality in an influencer?

One of Influencer50’s criteria by which we score and rank influencers is Quality of Impact. But what is 'quality' in terms of influence?

Firstly, quality is not an all-or-nothing concept. It might be obvious if an individual has a lot of it, or none at all, but what about the large grey area in the middle?

We use Robert Cialdini’s book (bible?) on influence to provide the framework for our Quality measure. In his discussion on authority, Cialdini poses two questions:

1. Is this person truly an expert (measured by the person’s credentials and the relevance of those credentials to the matter in hand)?
2. How truthful can we expect the expert to be?

We simplify these to 'Expertise' and 'Independence.'

In the book we discuss the relative importance of these two dimensions, and offered the following diagram:



The diagram implies that 100% expertise and 0% independence means that influence is severely constrained. Similarly, 0% expertise and 100% independence also represents low influence. But is this true in the real world?

There are many cases where people have 100% independence and 0% expertise. My own influence on the wine trade is a good example of this (never trust my wine suggestions), and it translates (intuitively) to low influence. But is the converse true? I think I’d rather buy wine from an expert who works for a wine producer, even if they recommend their own wine. In fact, I’d surprised if they didn’t. As long as they’ve declared their interest I know that the advice I’m getting is trustworthy, if qualified.

Back in the real world, can vendors be influence on the market? Absolutely. No-one expects them to be independent, but they can demonstrate their ample expertise, and be influential.

So the relationship between expertise and independence looks more like this:



In other words, you’ve got to have some minimum level of relevant expertise to be influential at all. Independence increases influence, but it is not a pre-requisite for it.

Why links don't equate to influence

We write about the disconnect between links and influence in the book

But Hugh has a better way of saying the same thing:

I really must learn to draw cartoons...

SAP Industry and Influencer Relations blog

Just picked up on Don Bulmer's blog, courtesy of ARmadgeddon. Don is VP of Industry and Influencer Relations at SAP, and is a welcome addition to the otherwise sell-side blogs promoting greater focus on influencers. That is, Don is a practitioner of what others (me included) are preaching*. We can all learn from his insights.

A couple of things occurred to me when reading his most recent post:

1. SAP has evolved its Industry and Influencer Relations group from its Analyst Relations team. That's one way of getting there. But not the only way. Influencer50 has clients that have arrived at Influencer identification & engagement from marketing effectiveness, sales effectiveness, PR, product marketing, corporate marketing and a bunch of other activities. That's not to say that it's a solution to all problems. Just that Influencers can be useful in a variety of ways.
2. SAP isn't the first firm to evolve in this manner - there are several others. For example, Wipro has been doing this kind of thing since 2006. We wrote a case study of Wipro for the book.
3. Don says that when SAP identified its business and IT influencers "We were surprised to find that a number of our assumptions on decision making authority and influence were challenged." That's completely normal for this exercise - influencers are not obvious, and take detailed and diligent research to identify and rank. IBM's Information Management group was "shocked" to discover it didn't know its influencers (again, a case study in the book). So don't embark on influencer identification expecting it to confirm what you already know.

And thanks, Don, for the link back to this blog.

*Before anyway starts, yes, we do use our own approaches. I'd like to think the book is a good example of what I call Influencer-led collateral...

More on Duncan Watts' theories

I suddenly remembered, after posting on Duncan Watts's theories of idea spread and influence (or lack thereof), that Prof Watts currently works at Yahoo!.

Spookily, we included a case study of Yahoo!'s use of influencers in the book. I wonder how Prof Watts is getting on with Yahoo!'s influencer marketing team...

Duncan Watts – influence killer?

There’s a bit of a stir going on regarding Duncan J Watts and his theories on how ideas spread. In particular he’s becoming known as the influencer killer because he says that influencers have no catalyst effect on the spread of ideas. Indeed, they have no special role in trends at all.

I’ve been following his research for about a year, since this was published. But the recent article in Fast Company magazine brings the issue to a head (and I think Clive Thompson has done a great job in raising the relevant issues).

As I see it, Prof Watts highlights some of the basic misunderstandings of influence. There is, frankly, a lot of nonsense and assumption talked about influence. Much of it stems from the Keller & Berry book The Influentials, which states that 10% of people tell the rest of us how to vote, where to eat and what to buy. I loved this book. I’ve read it three times. Nowhere does it say how Keller & Berry came up with the 10% number - why not 9% or 11%, or 1%. It is based on assertion, and the data in the book simply reasserts the 10% assumption. The Influentials is really useful in understanding how people gain influence in society. But it’s not useful in understanding who or where these people might be, or how to get them to influence markets on your behalf.

Another key misunderstanding on influence is that the people with influence are marked out through the roles they play, or the jobs they hold. Or worse, through the degree of celebrity status they hold. The consensus of research shows that we are more influenced by people with expertise than people with celebrity. And we are more likely to be influenced by people we know than by any other group.

Equally influencers don’t influence evenly through a decision process, as I wrote in this post and the book. And influencers aren’t influential in every category – influence is context-sensitive. So an influencer in buying a house may not have influence in buying a digital camera. This should be intuitive, but marketers sometimes get carried away by the promise of influencers that hold the keys to increased sales.

However, it’s clear that influence occurs in markets, and it’s attractive (I say essential) that firms understand how and what this influence is, and who are the conduits of it. So the final misunderstanding of influence is the assumption that it exists only within the consumers themselves. Clearly this is nonsense when you think about it (except marketers don’t tend to think about it). As consumers we are influenced by a host of people who are not (in the roles they play) consumers.

We’re clearly influenced by a range of people in different roles, some local, some national. What we do as decision-makers is to process the variety of influencers and then make a judgement. Not all influencers are successful in influencing every decision.

Consider the process of buying a house, something that most of us will be familiar with. You’ll be influenced by the house vendor and a real estate agent. Both have a vested interest in the transaction, so you do more checks. You’ll be influenced by any people that you know of within the area. You'll be able to check out whether a ‘neighbourhood watch' system is in place. You will consult published crime figures, possibly even calling the local police station for advice. You’ll refer to school inspection reports and league tables. Local councils will be quizzed for pending planning applications. The local head teacher may be critically important if the main attraction for the property is its proximity to good schools. Builders and other tradesmen may be asked for quotations for structural work you want to do.

I see this even more pronounced in B2B markets, where we can identify the individual people that influence a specific market segment. These are people that are not particularly obvious but undeniably carry influence in their area of expertise. B2B influence works in a different way to B2C, primary because B2B markets don’t have the word of mouth communication that B2C markets do.

But even in B2C markets we find that influencers in the supply chain and its ecosystem carry the majority of influence, with consumers having limited impact on the market as a whole.

I don’t believe that Prof Watts signals the death of influencers. But perhaps he has hastened the death of much of the nonsense that surrounds the notion of influence.

Book availability

I'm told that the book has sold out at Amazon.co.uk. Which means (lest my ego swell too much) that they only ordered half a box in the first place. Amazon UK is now citing 2-3 weeks' delay in shipping on orders. (US is unaffected as it's just launching there this week.)

If you're desparately awaiting your shiny copy you might want to try Elsevier's own site. If you quote offer code ASR4 when ordering you get 10% discount and free p&p.

Or you try the myriad of other sites, some of which are listed on the book web site (scroll to the bottom of the home page).

At one point the book was #1 in Amazon's market research category, and #14 in the general sales & marketing category (just behind Meatball Sundae). But you know how I hate lists...

Marketing’s image problem

In prepping for the CMO Council talk some weeks ago, I centred on a theme based on marketing’s image problem. It struck me that most non-marketers have a pretty poor regard for marketing, somewhere in the region of estate agents, lawyers and car salesmen.

What also struck me was the irony in the situation. Jeez – if marketers can’t fix their own image problem what chance do their employers/clients have.

When I met Hugh McLeod in 2006 he used this analogy for traditional marketing:

Imagine you're at a party. A man comes up to you, but instead of introducing himself, he yanks your head back, pulls your jaw down and looks at your teeth. "I'M A DENTIST!" he explains.

(I’ve subsequently plagiarised this analogy in a White Paper and the book.)

In a party context, most normal people would rather be offered some peanuts and engaged in polite, if trivial, conversation. Why can't marketing be like this? Why not engage people in a conversation? If you are interesting then they will respond in kind. You can move to a business conversation later, once social niceties are satisfied.

Hugh recently revisited the subject even more succinctly:

(Full post is here.)

The real problem for marketers is the awful image they have within their own firms. At the CMO Council Summit in Berlin, I was amazed at how many of the speakers criticised marketing and marketers (i.e. the audience!) for their lack of ambition and poor perception. “Blowing up the balloons,” was how Malcolm MacDonald termed it.

Marketing should be the second most important thing a firm does, after serving customers. If marketers are blowing up the balloons, then someone else has to do the effective, productive marketing, typically the sales teams and channel partners. Sales people can spend 40% of their time creating marketing collateral – 80% of “official” collateral created by marketers never gets used.

How are you perceived within your organisation? Are you a future board member or strategic thinker? Or do you blow up the balloons?

The book is published...

I just received some copies of the book, so those folks that have pre-ordered should be getting them any day now, Christmas post permitting. Our case study contributors and draft proof reviewers will receive their copies direct from the publisher.

Now comes the hard part - marketing and selling!

Whither the book?

The book is supposed to be officially out. Except it's not - delays in the printing process.

I apologise if this has ruined your Christmas, though I suspect only my closest relatives are really fretting.

If it really will cause you grief let me know. Otherwise, consider it something meaty to start in 2008.

Thanks for your patience...

The Book - update, case studies and reviews

The Book is imminent, which in publishing terms means two weeks or so. It's due on the 3rd December in the UK, and 14th January in the US. Don't ask why...

The book's available for pre-order on various amazon sites. Because of the Christmas rush, we won't be doing much in the way of formal promo until January, though I am discussing some of the book's main themes at the CMO Summit next week, as an exclusive(!). I'm also at the Word of Mouth Marketing Forum in January.

One of the main features of the book is the use of case studies. We have twelve of them, and I've previously announced that Wipro, Adobe, Palm and Yahoo! are among them. I can now divulge that IBM and Nortel will also be included, along with several firms that declined to be identified for competitive reasons. More details on all the case studies is available here.

Finally, we're delighted to have had the book reviewed by a dozen or so CMOs and other notables. The book reviews are posted here, and will also feature on the book cover. We're really chuffed that so many took the time to read the draft and provide comments. Nick and I are indebted.

The "Wave" is picked up by Paul Gillin

I'm flattered that Paul Gillin, author of The New Influencers, has linked to the post on influencer roles.

I've just read The New Influencers. I highly recommend it to anyone struggling to understand the influence of social media (which is most of you, and me too!). If Naked Conversations got you started on blogging, then The New Influencers will make you see just how important bloggers can be.

Thanks, Paul.

Influencers roles: When and how do influencers influence?

If you know anything about influencers you’ll know that they are a mixed bag. This of course means that they come from different disciplines and professions, since diversity is at the heart of a functional influencer ecosystem.

This diversity also extends to how and when influencers exert their influence. In researching the book, I charted a typical decision making process (because what we’re all trying to do is influence decisions) and then mapped out a range of influencer roles across this process. The result is this:

There’s a lot in this picture, but let me explain the various roles that influencers might play:

• Idea planters are the thinkers in your industry. These people ask “what if?” They are the sources of uncertainty. Authors and thinkers like Seth Godin, Tom Peters, Trevor Bayliss, and Nicholas Negroponte are all idea planters.


• Predictors tell us what (they believe) will be adopted soon. They ask “what next?” Much of this kind of influence comes from the supplier community, which is essentially telling us what’s next in their product pipeline. But this market priming is held in check by third parties such as analysts, financiers and other commentators such as bloggers and management gurus.


• Trend setters are the early adopters. They set themselves as reference points and create the direction for the rest of the market. They are important because they not only validate the market but also communicate success to the market. They are influential due to their early adoption, and the fact that they spread the news of their success.


• Proclaimers: Some influencers just stand up and proclaim that the world will be how they want it to be. They mandate (as far as they can) the what and how. Proclaimers most often work for government agencies and departments, regulators and legislators, or standards bodies, but may also include buyer groups or co-operatives, and industry commentators.


• Aggregators/communicators: One of the most important roles an influencer can play is that of information gatherer and disseminators. It’s where the media and analysts get the majority of their influence: their knowledge of the detail of the market allows them power as to who has access to that knowledge. Non-media aggregators/communicators might include events, industry commentators, buyer groups, government agencies, industry bodies and industry analysts.


• Scopers: At some point a definition of the decision to be taken has to be made. That’s the role of scopers, to map out the limitations, parameters and dimensions of the problem and its likely solutions. Scopers tell us “what now.”


• Recommenders suggest what you should do. They are sometimes, but not often, able to dictate a decision. Most often they will make their professional judgment known, and then leave the final decision up to the ultimate decision-maker. They are therefore usually somewhat passive in their influence, which is advisory in nature.


• Persuaders tell you what you must do. They are not passive at all, conveying precise direction rather than advice. These are your closers, salesmen in Gladwell’s terms, the people who are able to make or break a decision.


• Negotiators: Once the supplier is picked the fun begins. How are you going to implement the decision, and how much do you, or should you, pay? Cue the negotiators, who decide how and how much, advising on the financial elements of the deal, as well as the mechanics of how to construct a deal.


• Validators say “it’s okay,” and are the safety net for a decision-maker. Not the oft-perceived rubber stamp, they give any decision the health check, to make sure the decision-maker has covered all options. They can halt a deal, or send it circling back for additional scoping or negotiating.
  

Some key points:

• Roles can be played by different influencer types (analysts, journalists, academics, etc).


• One influencer could play several roles.


• Not all roles are played in every decision process.

The wave and its implications are explored in more detail in the book. We also map out overlap between influencer types (who they are) and influencer roles (what they do).

Use the Wave to examine how and when influencers influence. It’s proved useful in our influencer identification and engagement programs.

(Most of the content of this post is ©Elsevier 2008, usual copyright rules apply. Thanks.)

The Dip on influence

With Seth’s permission I’m reproducing a page of his most recent book, The Dip. I read it the day after I posted on the most important question. Spooky, but true…

Who am I trying to influence?

Are you trying to succeed in a market?

If you’re considering quitting, it’s almost certainly because you’re not being successful at your current attempts at influence. If you have called on a prospect a dozen times without success, you’re frustrated and giving up. If you’ve a boss who just won’t let up, you’re considering quitting your job. And if you’re a marketer with a product that doesn’t seem to be catching on, you’re wondering if you should abandon this product and try another.

If you’re trying to influence just one person, persistence has its limits. It’s easy to cross the line between demonstrating your commitment and being a pest. If you haven’t influenced him yet, it may very well be time to quit.

One person or organization will behave differently than a market of people will. One person has a particular agenda and a single worldview. One person will make up his mind and if you’re going to succeed, you’ll have to change it. And changing someone’s mind is difficult, if not impossible.

If you’re trying to influence a market, though, the rules are different. Sure, some of the people in a market have considered you (and even rejected you). But most of the people in the market have never heard of you. The market doesn’t have just one mind. Different people in the market are seeking different things.

Influencing one person is like scaling a wall. If you get over the wall the first few tries, you’re in. if you don’t often you’ll find that the wall gets higher with each attempt.

Influencing a market, on the other hand, is more of a hill than a wall. You can make progress, one step at a time, and as you get higher, it actually gets easier. People in the market talk to each other. They are influenced by each other. So every step of progress you make actually gets amplified.



Seth has also agreed to us using the above text as a pseudo-foreword for the book, which is due out late November. It’s just a tad galling that Seth writes in one page what we take 230 pages to say – gnash! At least we have case studies...

Needless to say, you should read The Dip in its entirety.

Book web page launched

The web site for the book is now live. Check it out at the imaginatively-titled http://www.influencermarketingbook.com/. The cover design is a draft, but we didn't want to wait.

The site contains the table of contents and information on the case studies. It will shortly also list some further reading (or pre-reading, depending on how keen you are), which we'll keep up to date.

I'll continue to announce the case study participants here but the book site will also be updated.

More book-related news to follow...

More case studies - and an update on the book

Further to my initial announcement on case studies for the forthcoming book, I can reveal two more case study subjects. These are Wipro and Yahoo!, thus adding to Adobe and Palm (and more coming soon).

What is interesting about both Wipro and Yahoo (without giving too much away) is that they have established Influencer Relations departments or functions within their marketing operations. This trend is growing.

The book is complete in draft proof format, and is out for review by a select group of experts - I hope they like it. We also have a natty cover design. The book web site is under construction and should be up and running shortly. It's all coming together (finally).

Review of H+K's Influencing Technology Decision Makers research

There’s a really interesting video and white paper produced by Hill and Knowlton, the PR/AR firm. The title is Influencing Technology Decision Makers (sounds relevant!) and the work is based on a research project carried out on behalf of H+K.

On the whole it is a really thought-provoking piece of research. The interesting bits, for me, are (in italics, with my comments):

• Previous experience is the primary driver for decision making. I agree, and where a decision maker doesn’t have this experience they have to borrow it from another source – influencers.
• Decision makers are cynical towards sales collateral and marketing messages. Yep.
• There is increasing influence of blogs, even in the C-suite. I disagree – we’ve completed a round of research for a client which shows that, except in France, blogs have little influence at the C-level. Blogs do tend to influence more technical audiences, and where blogs are part of the cultural make-up of the market under investigation (i.e. predominately online markets).
• Gartner and Forrester are the leading analysts, and there is not much between them. Gartner has greater influence on the IT managers, while Forrester is more widely read in the boardroom. Interesting. This indicates that Forrester has caught up with Gartner, and has more credibility with senior decision makers. We certainly see these two far and away the biggest influential analysts.
• Events are not that influential. I think this referred to analyst events, but I find it’s true in general. Gartner Symposium is the only analyst event that occurs in our research on a regular basis.
• The Financial Times is the most influential non-IT publication. The Wall Street Journal leads in the US but trails the FT in other countries. In the UK, the Sunday Times, Telegraph and The Economist ran highest. No real surprises here, except perhaps for the poor showing of the Journal outside the US.
• Print media is more widely read than online media. I agree, though the boundaries are often being blurred. As far as I know, the study didn’t track whether a respondent that read the FT did so in print or online format.
• Analysts are important throughout the decision making process. Absolutely. In the book we’ve mapped various influencer types to the decision making process, and analysts play more roles than any other type. It’s important to understand, though, that although analyst firms play various roles, it’s not the same analysts that play all roles.
• Use the media and analysts to influence decision makers, not to please your CEO on tour. Hoorah! If vendors take a decision maker focus, rather than creating noise to satisfy their own internal ends, then they might not annoy their customers and prospects so much. It is refreshing to hear this from a PR/AR firm.

The big criticism: where are the other influencers? This study only looks at the media, analysts and blogs. What about consultants, resellers, peers, user groups, academics, procurement experts, gurus and thought leaders, or the vendors themselves? I’d love to see the research run next year with this broader remit.


(A few words on the methodology. The research involved 420 interviews, across the UK, US Canada and China, and were conducted using a mix of online, face-to-face and telephone interviews. Interviews were also split by C-Suite and IT managers, and by large enterprises and SMEs. The sample looks a bit thin, when spread across all of these splits. But good food for thought.)

Announcing our first case studies

Our book, Influencer Marketing: influencing business decision-maker ecosystems, will feature a dozen state-of-the-art influencer marketing case studies. We’re proud and excited about these, since (a) there aren’t many around and (b) we worked bloody hard to find them all.

I’m delighted to reveal that Adobe and Palm will be case studies in the book, courtesy of our friends at Rubicon Consulting (thanks Nilofer).

More announcements coming soon. The book is due out in November.

Book case studies - announcing soon...

The easy part in writing a book is writing the book. The hard part is citing examples to illustrate the theory. So we've poured a fair amount of time and energy into tracking down cases studies, both from our own Influencer50 client base and beyond.

It turns out we've struck gold. We now expect to include twelve (count 'em) case studies, most of which will be fully identified and attributed. The one or two shy firms are sensitive to the competitve advantage they are achieving. The others see the opportunity to demonstrate their leadership in the emerging Influencer Marketing discipline, and to be associated with the book. We're humbled by their eagerness to be involved.

As case studies (usually) take ages to get approval we'll be announcing them as we get sign-off. They'll be released on this blog and the soon-to-be launched book web site.

Influencer Marketing – The Book

We’re delighted to announce that Butterworth-Heinemann has commissioned Nick Hayes and me to write a book on Influencer Marketing. BH has a strong reputation in titles on marketing, both for the academic world and general commerce. In particular it published the popular Connected Marketing in 2005.

The proposed date for publication is November 2007, so lots of hard work to do before then. Specifically, we’ll be including case studies of Influencer Marketing in practice from around the world, across as many sectors as we can. This is not a technology market only undertaking, nor is it an Influencer50 brochure. We are collaborating with Influencer Marketing providers and practitioners, to create a useful resource for marketers seeking to identify and capitalise on influencers.

If you’re interested in supplying a case study then please let me know at duncan.brown@influencer50.com. We have several lined up already but can always do with more.

Many thanks.